Le Havre 1–1 Amiens: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Le Havre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Amiens

J. Thiaré 72'

T. Arokodare 13'

8/27/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Océane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Le Havre50%

×Draw27%

Amiens23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le HavreExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.88

Le Havre

1.43

Amiens

0.88

Le Havre creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

0.57

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Le Havre

1.00

Amiens

1.19

allows per match

Le Havre

0.57

Amiens

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Havre+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Havre ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Le Havre or draw

77%

Le Havre or Amiens

73%

Draw or Amiens

50%

Winning margin

Le Havre wins by 2+

25%

Amiens wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Le Havre 1+ goals

76%

Le Havre 2+ goals

42%

Le Havre 3+ goals

17%

Amiens 1+ goals

59%

Amiens 2+ goals

22%

Amiens 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Le Havre (draw refunded)

68%

Amiens (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Havre at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Amiens away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Havre attack 1.00 + Amiens defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Amiens attack 1.19 + Le Havre defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Le Havre scores more

50%

level

27%

Amiens scores more

23%

Le Havre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Lloris

Le Havre · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

31'

38'

58'

58'

A. Chibozo← T. Arokodare

59'

M. Lachuer← Mamadou Fofana II

60'

J. Thiaré← Y. Kitala

67'

Q. Cornette← J. Casimir

67'

A. Ba← A. Richardson

68'

O. Gene← J. Gelin

72'

75'

77'

79'

80'

86'

E. Mahmoud← Y. Kechta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeAmiens

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots4

11Corners1

14Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots4

5On Target4

9Off Target0

3Blocked0

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

588Total Passes380

502Accurate Passes300

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4