Amiens 1–1 Le Havre: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Amiens

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Le Havre

V. Lekhal 10' (OG)

J. Thiaré 88'

1/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Amiens18%

×Draw27%

Le Havre55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmiensExpected goals in this matchLe Havre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.46

Amiens

0.70

Le Havre

1.46

Le Havre creates 109% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

0.90

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Amiens

0.90

Le Havre

1.25

allows per match

Amiens

1.67

Le Havre

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par

Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Le Havre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amiens or draw

45%

Amiens or Le Havre

73%

Draw or Le Havre

82%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+

5%

Le Havre wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals

50%

Amiens 2+ goals

16%

Amiens 3+ goals

3%

Le Havre 1+ goals

77%

Le Havre 2+ goals

43%

Le Havre 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)

24%

Le Havre (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Le Havre away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 0.90 + Le Havre defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Le Havre attack 1.25 + Amiens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Amiens scores more

18%

level

27%

Le Havre scores more

55%

Le Havre at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Gélin

Amiens · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

V. LekhalOwn goal

27'

Iron Gomis

60'

J. Thiaré← Y. Kitala

60'

A. Joujou← J. Casimir

60'

C. Diakité← Y. Kechta

63'

S. Ring← M. Xantippe

71'

O. Gene← J. Gélin

71'

G. Ilenikhena← T. Arokodare

73'

N. Mbemba← A. Richardson

78'

E. Mahmoud← Q. Cornette

88'

J. Thiaré↳ G. Lloris

90+1'

P. Cissé← Mamadou Fofana II

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmiensLe

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots9

3Corners8

10Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target1

6Off Target6

6Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

390Total Passes620

320Accurate Passes548

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0