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LDU Portoviejo vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
3/9/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 2Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Portoviejo59%
×Draw25%
LDU Loja17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.63
LDU Loja
0.73

LDU Portoviejo creates 123% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 40 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.55
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.87
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
83%
LDU Portoviejo or LDU Loja
75%
Draw or LDU Loja
41%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
32%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
80%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
48%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
22%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
52%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
17%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
78%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.87 · 67 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.55 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
59%
level
25%
LDU Loja scores more
17%

LDU Portoviejo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Portoviejo vs LDU Loja

LDU Portoviejo beat LDU Loja 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo).