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LDU Loja vs LDU Portoviejo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
E. Vivero 44'
F. Laurito 90+2'
D. Valverde 63'
6/30/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja40%
×Draw30%
LDU Portoviejo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.15
LDU Portoviejo
0.96

LDU Loja creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 69 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
LDU Portoviejo
0.91

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
LDU Portoviejo
1.29

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

LDU Portoviejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
70%
LDU Loja or LDU Portoviejo
70%
Draw or LDU Portoviejo
60%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
17%
LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
68%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
32%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
11%
LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
62%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
25%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
57%
LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.91 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LDU Loja scores more
40%
level
30%
LDU Portoviejo scores more
30%

LDU Loja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
E. Vivero
63'
D. Valverde
90+2'
F. Laurito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU Loja 1 – 2 LDU Portoviejo

LDU Portoviejo beat LDU Loja 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 30, 2019.

Goals: E. Vivero (44'), D. Valverde (63'), F. Laurito (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).