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LDU Loja vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
3/17/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

LDU Loja37%
×Draw31%
Fuerza Amarilla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.02
Fuerza Amarilla
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 31 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
68%
LDU Loja or Fuerza Amarilla
69%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
63%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
14%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
64%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
27%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
8%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
61%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
24%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
53%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

LDU Loja scores more
37%
level
31%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
32%

LDU Loja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Loja vs Fuerza Amarilla

LDU Loja and Fuerza Amarilla drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).