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Fuerza Amarilla vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
7/1/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 20Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla53%
×Draw27%
LDU Loja20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.44
LDU Loja
0.77

Fuerza Amarilla creates 87% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 40 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.19
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
0.94
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
80%
Fuerza Amarilla or LDU Loja
73%
Draw or LDU Loja
47%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
27%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
76%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
42%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
18%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
54%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
18%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
73%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
53%
level
27%
LDU Loja scores more
20%

Fuerza Amarilla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Fuerza Amarilla 2–1 LDU Loja

Fuerza Amarilla beat LDU Loja 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).