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LDU Loja vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
5/12/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 10Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja43%
×Draw28%
Duros del Balon29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.27
Duros del Balon
0.98

LDU Loja creates 30% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
71%
LDU Loja or Duros del Balon
72%
Draw or Duros del Balon
57%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
19%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
72%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
36%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
14%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
62%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
26%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
60%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LDU Loja scores more
43%
level
28%
Duros del Balon scores more
29%

LDU Loja at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Loja vs Duros del Balon

LDU Loja and Duros del Balon drew 3-3 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).