Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Duros del Balon vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
5/6/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 9Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Duros del Balon52%
×Draw27%
LDU Loja21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duros del Balon
1.44
LDU Loja
0.81

Duros del Balon creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 40 away

creates per match

Duros del Balon
1.18
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

Duros del Balon
1.02
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

Duros del Balon+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duros del Balon ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Duros del Balon or draw
79%
Duros del Balon or LDU Loja
73%
Draw or LDU Loja
48%

Winning margin

Duros del Balon wins by 2+
26%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Duros del Balon 1+ goals
76%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
42%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
18%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
56%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
19%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
71%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duros del Balon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duros del Balon attack 1.18 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Duros del Balon defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Duros del Balon scores more
52%
level
27%
LDU Loja scores more
21%

Duros del Balon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Duros del Balon vs LDU Loja

Duros del Balon beat LDU Loja 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil).