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LDU Loja vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

LDU Loja
LDU Loja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
America de Quito
America de Quito
9/22/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 33Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

LDU Loja38%
×Draw29%
America de Quito32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Loja
1.14
America de Quito
1.02

LDU Loja creates 12% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

LDU Loja
1.00
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

LDU Loja
1.00
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

LDU Loja+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Loja ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

LDU Loja or draw
68%
LDU Loja or America de Quito
71%
Draw or America de Quito
62%

Winning margin

LDU Loja wins by 2+
16%
America de Quito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LDU Loja 1+ goals
68%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
32%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
11%
America de Quito 1+ goals
64%
America de Quito 2+ goals
27%
America de Quito 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LDU Loja (draw refunded)
54%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Loja at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Loja attack 1.00 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

America de Quito attack 1.05 + LDU Loja defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

LDU Loja scores more
38%
level
29%
America de Quito scores more
32%

LDU Loja at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "LDU Loja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU Loja vs America de Quito

LDU Loja and America de Quito drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja).