America de Quito 3–0 LDU Loja: Result & Stats

America de Quito

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU Loja

9/30/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 34Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

America de Quito58%

×Draw25%

LDU Loja17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchLDU Loja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.72

America de Quito

1.59

LDU Loja

0.72

America de Quito creates 121% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 40 away

1.48

creates per match

0.60

0.84

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

America de Quito

1.48

LDU Loja

0.60

allows per match

America de Quito

0.84

LDU Loja

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

LDU Loja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

83%

America de Quito or LDU Loja

75%

Draw or LDU Loja

42%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

31%

LDU Loja wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

80%

America de Quito 2+ goals

47%

America de Quito 3+ goals

21%

LDU Loja 1+ goals

51%

LDU Loja 2+ goals

16%

LDU Loja 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

78%

LDU Loja (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

America de Quito scores more

58%

level

25%

LDU Loja scores more

17%

America de Quito at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff