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LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Preview
20:00
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
9/2/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 28Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Big match
60%
LDU de Quito
model favours
60%22%18%

LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

LDU de Quito60%
×Draw22%
Mushuc Runa SC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.87
Mushuc Runa SC
0.92

LDU de Quito creates 103% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 117 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
82%
LDU de Quito or Mushuc Runa SC
78%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
40%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
35%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
85%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
56%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
29%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
60%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
23%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
77%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.87

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
60%
level
22%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
18%

LDU de Quito at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
LDU de Quito
Defensively solid
Mushuc Runa SC
Defensively solid
55%Possession47%
81%Pass accuracy70%
13.2Shots12.9
1.32xGBiggest gap1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LDU de QuitoMushuc Runa SC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
LDU de Quito
3
Draws
1
Mushuc Runa SC
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 80%
3–12–10–11–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Quito
LLDDL
SC
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU de Quito face Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with LDU de Quito hosting Mushuc Runa SC. Match starts September 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

LDU de Quito host Mushuc Runa SC at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.