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LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
N. Angulo 87'
M. Hoyos 51', 45+2'
D. Villalba 76'
L. Caicedo 69' (OG)
4/24/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 10Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito48%
×Draw28%
Mushuc Runa SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.37
Mushuc Runa SC
0.89

LDU de Quito creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.46
Mushuc Runa SC
0.85

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.92
Mushuc Runa SC
1.28

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par
Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
76%
LDU de Quito or Mushuc Runa SC
72%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
52%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
23%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
75%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
40%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
16%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
59%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
22%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
66%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
48%
level
28%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
24%

LDU de Quito at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
E. Velasco← J. Uchuari
45+2'
M. Hoyos↳ F. Guerra
51'
M. Hoyos↳ J. Ortiz
59'
C. Llama← G. Vega
60'
N. Angulo← T. Molina
60'
J. Paredes← S. Giordana
68'
C. Feraud← M. Alonso
68'
D. Quilumba← E. Velasco
69'
L. CaicedoOwn goal
70'
J. Quintero← A. López
70'
Ó. Zambrano← J. Espinoza
76'
D. Villalba↳ C. Feraud
87'
N. Angulo↳ J. Quintero
88'
J. Arce← J. Ortiz
88'
B. de Jesús← A. Alvarado

Possession

53%LDU

Shots

7LDU

Statistics

LDUMushuc
Overview
53%Possession47%
7Total Shots9
6Corners4
6Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots9
4On Target6
3Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC

LDU de Quito beat Mushuc Runa SC 3-2 in Liga Pro on April 24, 2022.

Goals: M. Hoyos (45+2', 51'), L. Caicedo (69' o.g.), D. Villalba (76'), N. Angulo (87').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.