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LDU de Quito vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
D. Reasco 90+1'
4/14/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 8Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

LDU de Quito57%
×Draw24%
Manta FC19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.74
Manta FC
0.89

LDU de Quito creates 96% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.47
Manta FC
0.89

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Manta FC
2.01

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.03on par
Manta FC-0.22scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Manta FC
76%
Draw or Manta FC
43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
32%
Manta FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
82%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
52%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
25%
Manta FC 1+ goals
59%
Manta FC 2+ goals
22%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
75%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.47 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.74

Manta FC attack 0.89 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
57%
level
24%
Manta FC scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Jhojan Julio
46'
B. Arce← J. Julio
53'
Martin Alaniz
62'
C. Cuero← Á. Ledesma
63'
L. Villarruel← J. Alcivar
63'
L. Amarilla← F. Guerra
64'
J. Quinteros← M. Zunino
73'
Xavier Mesias
77'
J. Caicedo← M. Romero
87'
D. Reasco← A. Muñoz
87'
J. Domínguez← J. Flor
90'
Hamilton Piedra
90+1'
D. Reasco↳ L. Amarilla

Possession

65%LDU

Shots

11LDU

Statistics

LDUManta
Overview
65%Possession35%
11Total Shots8
7Corners3
18Fouls19
Shots
11Total Shots8
3On Target2
8Off Target6
Passing
65%Possession35%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls19
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Manta FC

LDU de Quito beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 14, 2021.

Goals: D. Reasco (90+1').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.