Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LDU de Quito vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Libertad
Libertad
A. Alvarado 90+4' (pen), 64' (pen)
M. Martínez 69'
J. Anangonó 12' (pen)
R. Garcés 39' (pen)
A. Naula 27'
6/3/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 13Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

LDU de Quito59%
×Draw23%
Libertad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.82
Libertad
0.88

LDU de Quito creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.46
Libertad
0.84

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.92
Libertad
2.19

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par
Libertad+0.16scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
82%
LDU de Quito or Libertad
77%
Draw or Libertad
41%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
34%
Libertad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
84%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
54%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
27%
Libertad 1+ goals
59%
Libertad 2+ goals
22%
Libertad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
77%
Libertad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.19 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Libertad defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Libertad attack 0.84 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
59%
level
23%
Libertad scores more
18%

LDU de Quito at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. AlvaradoLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
8.6

Match Events

12'
J. AnangonóPenalty
27'
A. Naula↳ M. Bolaños
30'
J. Arce
36'
P. Larrea
39'
R. GarcésPenalty
40'
L. Piovi
42'
A. Valverde← P. Larrea
45+6'
Y. Rodriguez
46'
J. Quintero← D. Romero
46'
A. Alvarado← L. Alzugaray
46'
M. Martínez← J. Arce
57'
C. Enciso
60'
J. L. Angulo
64'
A. AlvaradoPenalty
69'
M. Martínez↳ D. Luna
74'
R. Ibarra← Á. Gonzalez
77'
C. Feraud← A. Ávila
81'
J. Julio← D. Luna
81'
D. Vera← A. Naula
81'
S. Sosa← R. Simisterra
90'
J. L. Angulo
90'
J. L. Angulo
90+6'
S. Sosa
90+4'
A. AlvaradoPenalty

Possession

64%LDU

Shots

16LDU

Pass accuracy

54%LDU

Statistics

LDULibertad
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots12
5Corners4
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots12
6On Target3
6Off Target5
4Blocked4
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
436Total Passes244
369Accurate Passes178
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Libertad

LDU de Quito beat Libertad 4-2 in Liga Pro on June 3, 2023.

Goals: J. Anangonó (12' pen), A. Naula (27'), R. Garcés (39' pen), A. Alvarado (64' pen, 90+4' pen), M. Martínez (69').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.