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LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte — Copa Ecuador 2022

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Preview
20:00
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
8/5/2026Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
51%
Leones del Norte
model favours
26%24%51%

Leones del Norte are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito26%
×Draw24%
Leones del Norte51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.17
Leones del Norte
1.75

Leones del Norte creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.33
Leones del Norte
2.50

allows per match

LDU de Quito
1.00
Leones del Norte
0.00

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
49%
LDU de Quito or Leones del Norte
76%
Draw or Leones del Norte
74%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
10%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
69%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
33%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
11%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
83%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
52%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
33%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.33 + Leones del Norte defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Leones del Norte attack 2.50 + LDU de Quito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
26%
level
24%
Leones del Norte scores more
51%

Leones del Norte at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leones del Norte have scored in 11 games running
  • LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Leones del Norte’s matches
  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Quito
LLDDL
Norte
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte — Match Preview

LDU de Quito face Leones del Norte on August 5, 2026 in this Copa Ecuador fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

LDU de Quito host Leones del Norte at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.