Leones del Norte 0–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

J. Corozo 90'

R. Redes 46'

3/18/2026

Liga Pro · Round 5Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte41%

×Draw30%

LDU de Quito29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.93

Leones del Norte

1.17

LDU de Quito

0.93

Leones del Norte creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.17

0.70

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.30

LDU de Quito

1.17

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.70

LDU de Quito

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

71%

Leones del Norte or LDU de Quito

70%

Draw or LDU de Quito

59%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

18%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

69%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

33%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

11%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

61%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

24%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

59%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + LDU de Quito defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

LDU de Quito attack 1.17 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

41%

level

30%

LDU de Quito scores more

29%

Leones del Norte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Redes

LDU de Quito · M

8.0

Match Events

31'

R. Mina

39'

B. Kreiman

46'

R. Redes↳ Deyverson

58'

Caicedo Nestor← A. Aguas

61'

T. Coppo

69'

J. Mairongo← E. Griffa

69'

J. Corozo← R. Redes

77'

G. Villamil← A. Alvarado

77'

J. Medina← Deyverson

81'

M. Caramuto← J. Moran

81'

R. Borja← C. Solano

83'

E. Mendez

83'

J. Quintero← D. I. de la Cruz

83'

C. Luna Tobar← J. Pretell

84'

K. Minda

90'

J. Corozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonesLDU

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots19

2Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target5

5Off Target10

0Blocked4

3Inside Box11

5Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

342Total Passes345

270Accurate Passes269

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3