Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Preview
21:30
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
7/18/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
56%
LDU de Quito
model favours
56%25%19%

LDU de Quito score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

LDU de Quito56%
×Draw25%
Leones del Norte19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.61
Leones del Norte
0.82

LDU de Quito creates 96% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 9 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.79
Leones del Norte
0.78

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.86
Leones del Norte
1.44

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Leones del Norte
75%
Draw or Leones del Norte
44%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
30%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
80%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
48%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
22%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
56%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
20%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
75%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.79 + Leones del Norte defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Leones del Norte attack 0.78 + LDU de Quito defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
56%
level
25%
Leones del Norte scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leones del Norte are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Leones del Norte have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in 80% of Leones del Norte’s matches
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.6% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Quito
LDDLW
Norte
DWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte — Match Preview

LDU de Quito face Leones del Norte on July 18, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

LDU de Quito host Leones del Norte at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.