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LDU de Quito vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Lanus
Lanusadvanced
A. Arce 14'
M. Moreno 45+1'
G. Pérez 23'
8/15/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU de Quito53%
×Draw26%
Lanus22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.55
Lanus
0.90

LDU de Quito creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.07
Lanus
1.22

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.57
Lanus
1.04

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
78%
LDU de Quito or Lanus
74%
Draw or Lanus
47%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
27%
Lanus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
79%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
46%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
20%
Lanus 1+ goals
59%
Lanus 2+ goals
23%
Lanus 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
71%
Lanus (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lanus attack 1.22 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
53%
level
26%
Lanus scores more
22%

LDU de Quito at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. MorenoLanusLanus · M
8.9

Match Events

14'
A. Arce↳ L. Quiñónez
18'
Ezequiel Piovi
23'
G. Pérez↳ N. Domínguez
45+5'
Jhojan JulioPenalty cancelled
45+1'
M. Moreno↳ D. Aquino
46'
F. Mina← L. Alzugaray
46'
J. Soler← B. Aguirre
57'
M. Angulo← F. Cornejo
61'
M. González← N. Domínguez
61'
J. Torres← W. Bou
64'
Dylan Aquino
73'
J. Charcopa← J. Quintero
73'
Lautaro Acosta← E. Salvio
85'
L. Boggio← D. Aquino
90+2'
Freddy Mina

Possession

66%LDU

Shots

17LDU

Pass accuracy

55%LDU

Statistics

LDULanus
Overview
66%Possession34%
17Total Shots17
13Corners8
11Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots17
4On Target9
7Off Target5
6Blocked3
10Inside Box8
7Outside Box9
Passing
66%Possession34%
419Total Passes219
347Accurate Passes151
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: LDU de Quito 1–2 Lanus

Lanus beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Arce (14'), G. Pérez (23'), M. Moreno (45+1').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.