Lanus 3–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

LDU de Quito

Lautaro Acosta 89'

C. Izquierdoz 78'

W. Bou 9'

A. Arce 37'

8/22/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lanus50%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.95

Lanus

1.51

LDU de Quito

0.95

Lanus creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.56

creates per match

1.23

0.67

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Lanus

1.56

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Lanus

0.67

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

76%

Lanus or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

50%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

26%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

78%

Lanus 2+ goals

44%

Lanus 3+ goals

19%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

61%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

25%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

68%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.56 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.51

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Lanus defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lanus scores more

50%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

24%

Lanus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Moreno

Lanus · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

W. Bou

33'

Dylan Aquino

37'

A. Arce

61'

Walter BouGoal cancelled

64'

Lautaro Acosta← D. Aquino

67'

L. Estupiñán← B. Ramírez

71'

R. Loaiza← N. Domínguez

73'

Nicolás Morgantini

77'

Ezequiel Piovi

78'

J. Charcopa← J. Quintero

78'

C. Izquierdoz↳ M. Moreno

81'

Jhojan Julio

89'

J. Torres← W. Bou

89'

Lautaro Acosta↳ M. Moreno

90+3'

Luis Estupiñan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusLDU

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots10

4Corners3

19Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target4

7Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

41%Possession59%

336Total Passes484

251Accurate Passes391

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2