LDU de Quito 0–1 Junior: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Junior

J. Enamorado 37'

5/14/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

LDU de Quito64%

×Draw21%

Junior15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.79

LDU de Quito

1.93

Junior

0.79

LDU de Quito creates 144% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

2.29

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Junior

0.83

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Junior

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

85%

LDU de Quito or Junior

79%

Draw or Junior

36%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

39%

Junior wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

85%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

57%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

30%

Junior 1+ goals

55%

Junior 2+ goals

19%

Junior 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

81%

Junior (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Junior away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Junior defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.93

Junior attack 0.83 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

64%

level

21%

Junior scores more

15%

LDU de Quito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

L. Quiñónez

LDU de Quito · D

8.2

Match Events

29'

Walmer Pacheco

37'

J. Enamorado↳ M. Pérez

45'

Richard Mina

55'

B. Castrillón← J. Enamorado

56'

H. Martínez← C. Bacca

66'

J. Hurtado← L. Estupiñán

67'

J. Vélez← V. Cantillo

73'

L. Berrío← D. Moreno

73'

B. Ceballos← Y. Chará

76'

A. Alvarado← L. Alzugaray

85'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUJunior

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots7

2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.82

8Corners2

10Fouls3

Shots

26Total Shots7

4On Target3

16Off Target1

6Blocked3

16Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

457Total Passes239

382Accurate Passes158

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls3

1Yellow Cards1