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Junior vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Junior
Junior
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
C. Bacca 12' (pen)
A. Arce 45' (pen)
4/24/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Junior48%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.44
LDU de Quito
0.95

Junior creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Junior
1.29
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Junior
1.06
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
75%
Junior or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
52%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
24%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
76%
Junior 2+ goals
42%
Junior 3+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
61%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
25%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
66%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.29 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Junior defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Junior scores more
48%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
25%

Junior at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
S. MeleJuniorJunior · G
7.9

Match Events

12'
C. BaccaPenalty
21'
H. H. Mena Posada
21'
M. Estrada
29'
L. Estupiñán← L. Alzugaray
45'
A. ArcePenalty
61'
Jhojan Julio
63'
L. González← Y. Chará
63'
M. Pérez← D. Caicedo
80'
C. Bacca
83'
S. Rodríguez← C. Bacca
83'
V. Hernández← J. Enamorado
83'
B. Ramírez← M. Estrada
90'
A. Arce
90+5'
J. Pena
90+2'
J. Hurtado← A. Arce

Possession

59%Junior

Shots

11Junior

Pass accuracy

54%Junior

Statistics

JuniorLDU
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots16
2.87Expected Goals (xG)1.40
3Corners6
10Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots16
3On Target7
7Off Target4
1Blocked5
9Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
370Total Passes256
296Accurate Passes175
80%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
5Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Junior 1–1 LDU de Quito

Junior and LDU de Quito drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 24, 2024.

Goals: C. Bacca (12' pen), A. Arce (45' pen).

Junior controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.