LDU de Quito 1–0 Guayaquil City FC: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guayaquil City FC

5/2/2026

Liga Pro · Round 12Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

LDU de Quito61%

×Draw23%

Guayaquil City FC16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.82

LDU de Quito

1.82

Guayaquil City FC

0.82

LDU de Quito creates 122% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 95 away

1.91

creates per match

0.77

0.88

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.91

Guayaquil City FC

0.77

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Guayaquil City FC

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

84%

LDU de Quito or Guayaquil City FC

77%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

39%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

35%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

84%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

54%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

27%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

56%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

20%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

79%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.74 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

61%

level

23%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

16%

LDU de Quito at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff