Guayaquil City FC 1–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

LDU de Quito

M. Parrales 33'

1 Á. Gonzalez 90+11'

A. Alvarado 90+9' (pen)

4/9/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 5Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC36%

×Draw28%

LDU de Quito37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.22

Guayaquil City FC

1.20

LDU de Quito

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 136 away

1.25

creates per match

1.37

1.07

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.25

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.07

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

63%

Guayaquil City FC or LDU de Quito

72%

Draw or LDU de Quito

64%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

15%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

70%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

34%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

12%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

70%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

34%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

49%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.25 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

36%

level

28%

LDU de Quito scores more

37%

LDU de Quito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Andrés Parrales

33'

M. Parrales↳ Klebinho

45+2'

William Vargas

58'

J. Julio← Ó. Zambrano

58'

Á. Gonzalez← R. Ibarra

58'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

59'

69'

70'

77'

78'

C. Medina← M. Parrales

78'

K. Sambonino← J. Humanante

81'

W. Chalá← L. Alzugaray

90+8'

Renato César

90+1'

R. Corozo← Klebinho

90+9'

A. AlvaradoPenalty

90+11'

1 Á. Gonzalez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GuayaquilLDU

Overview

54%Possession46%

1Total Shots9

0Corners5

5Fouls14

Shots

1Total Shots9

1On Target5

Passing

54%Possession46%

Discipline

5Fouls14

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2