LDU de Quito 0–1 Gremio: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gremio

Léo Pereira 19'

7/13/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LDU de Quito47%

×Draw27%

Gremio26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.01

LDU de Quito

1.44

Gremio

1.01

LDU de Quito creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

2.07

creates per match

1.45

0.57

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Gremio

1.45

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Gremio

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

74%

LDU de Quito or Gremio

73%

Draw or Gremio

53%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

23%

Gremio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

76%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

42%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

18%

Gremio 1+ goals

64%

Gremio 2+ goals

27%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

64%

Gremio (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Gremio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gremio attack 1.45 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

47%

level

27%

Gremio scores more

26%

LDU de Quito at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Gabriel Chapecó

Gremio · G

8.0

Match Events

19'

Léo Pereira↳ Jean Pyerre

21'

Ezequiel Piovi

35'

Alisson

49'

Fernando Henrique

56'

P. Perlaza← J. Quinteros

56'

K. Mercado← M. Zunino

56'

D. Reasco← L. Amarilla

69'

Ricardinho← Diego Souza

76'

Douglas Costa← Jean Pyerre

77'

J. Kaprof← J. Alcivar

78'

Mateus Sarará← Lucas Silva

78'

Leo Chú← Alisson

85'

A. Muñoz← L. Ayala

87'

Franklin Guerra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUGremio

Overview

76%Possession24%

18Total Shots3

11Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots3

5On Target2

9Off Target1

4Blocked0

7Inside Box3

11Outside Box0

Passing

76%Possession24%

605Total Passes187

536Accurate Passes113

89%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1