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Gremio vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Gremio
Gremio
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
Diego Souza 23'
J. Alcivar 56' (pen), 44'
7/20/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gremio57%
×Draw23%
LDU de Quito20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
1.82
LDU de Quito
0.98

Gremio creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gremio
2.18
LDU de Quito
1.23

allows per match

Gremio
0.73
LDU de Quito
1.46

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
80%
Gremio or LDU de Quito
77%
Draw or LDU de Quito
43%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
33%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
84%
Gremio 2+ goals
54%
Gremio 3+ goals
27%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
62%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
26%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
74%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 2.18 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.82

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Gremio defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gremio scores more
57%
level
23%
LDU de Quito scores more
20%

Gremio at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. AlcivarLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
8.9

Match Events

21'
Léo Pereira
23'
Diego Souza↳ Alisson
44'
J. Alcivar↳ P. Perlaza
53'
Matías ZuninoPenalty cancelled
56'
J. AlcivarPenalty
64'
C. Pinares← Léo Pereira
71'
Leo Chú← Fernando Henrique
71'
Diogo Barbosa← Cortez
71'
L. Villarruel← K. Mercado
72'
Matías Zunino
79'
J. Quinteros← M. Zunino
80'
Walter Kannemann
81'
Gui Azevedo← Alisson
81'
Ruan← W. Kannemann
90'
C. Cruz← J. Julio

Possession

44%Gremio

Shots

10Gremio

Pass accuracy

48%Gremio

Statistics

GremioLDU
Overview
44%Possession56%
10Total Shots8
2Corners4
17Fouls18
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target5
2Off Target1
4Blocked2
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
413Total Passes529
316Accurate Passes434
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Gremio vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Gremio 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 20, 2021.

Goals: Diego Souza (23'), J. Alcivar (44', 56' pen).

LDU de Quito controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.