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LDU de Quito vs El Nacional — Copa Ecuador 2022

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacionaladvanced
10/2/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Quarter-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito43%
×Draw23%
El Nacional34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.72
El Nacional
1.50

LDU de Quito creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.33
El Nacional
2.00

allows per match

LDU de Quito
1.00
El Nacional
1.11

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
66%
LDU de Quito or El Nacional
77%
Draw or El Nacional
57%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
22%
El Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
82%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
51%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
25%
El Nacional 1+ goals
78%
El Nacional 2+ goals
44%
El Nacional 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
56%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

El Nacional away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.33 + El Nacional defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

El Nacional attack 2.00 + LDU de Quito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
43%
level
23%
El Nacional scores more
34%

LDU de Quito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: LDU de Quito 0–0 El Nacional

LDU de Quito and El Nacional drew 0-0 in Copa Ecuador on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.