Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LDU de Quito vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacional
9/21/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 7Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

LDU de Quito54%
×Draw24%
El Nacional22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.71
El Nacional
0.98

LDU de Quito creates 74% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 91 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
78%
LDU de Quito or El Nacional
76%
Draw or El Nacional
46%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
30%
El Nacional wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
82%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
51%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
24%
El Nacional 1+ goals
62%
El Nacional 2+ goals
26%
El Nacional 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
72%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.71

El Nacional attack 1.08 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
54%
level
24%
El Nacional scores more
22%

LDU de Quito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs El Nacional

LDU de Quito and El Nacional drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.