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LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Tachira FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
4/10/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU de Quito75%
×Draw16%
Deportivo Tachira FC9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
2.43
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.70

LDU de Quito creates 247% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.64

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
Deportivo Tachira FC
2.57

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
91%
LDU de Quito or Deportivo Tachira FC
84%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
25%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
52%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
91%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
69%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
43%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
50%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
89%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.43

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.64 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
75%
level
16%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
9%

LDU de Quito at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 2–0 Deportivo Tachira FC

LDU de Quito beat Deportivo Tachira FC 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.