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Deportivo Tachira FC vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
5/7/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC45%
×Draw25%
LDU de Quito31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.58
LDU de Quito
1.27

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.57
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.71
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
69%
Deportivo Tachira FC or LDU de Quito
75%
Draw or LDU de Quito
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
23%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
21%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
72%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
36%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
59%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.57 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
45%
level
25%
LDU de Quito scores more
31%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Deportivo Tachira FC 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.