LDU de Quito 0–3 Boca Juniors: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Boca Juniors

Luis Caicedo 81' (OG)

Emanuel Reynoso 47'

Ramon Abila 11'

8/21/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Quarter-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

LDU de Quito58%

×Draw26%

Boca Juniors17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.70

LDU de Quito

1.55

Boca Juniors

0.70

LDU de Quito creates 121% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

2.29

creates per match

0.65

0.75

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Boca Juniors

0.65

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Boca Juniors

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

83%

LDU de Quito or Boca Juniors

74%

Draw or Boca Juniors

42%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

31%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

79%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

46%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

50%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

16%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

77%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.65, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Boca Juniors defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.55

Boca Juniors attack 0.65 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

58%

level

26%

Boca Juniors scores more

17%

LDU de Quito at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Alexis Mac Allister

Boca Juniors · M

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Kevin Minda

11'

Ramon Abila↳ Alexis Mac Allister

18'

Rodrigo Aguirre

21'

Emanuel Reynoso← Mauro Zárate

41'

Cristian Martínez← Rodrigo Aguirre

45'

Jefferson Orejuela

46'

Jordy Alcivar← Luis Chicaiza

47'

Emanuel Reynoso

67'

Jacob Murillo← José Ayoví

69'

Alexis Mac Allister

69'

Jorman Campuzano← Alexis Mac Allister

73'

Luis Caicedo

78'

Julio Buffarini← Eduardo Salvio

81'

Luis CaicedoOwn goal

85'

Jordy Alcivar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUBoca

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots13

8Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target4

1Blocked4

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

424Total Passes333

355Accurate Passes257

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

2Red Cards0

1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 0–3 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat LDU de Quito 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 21, 2019.

Goals: Ramon Abila (11'), Emanuel Reynoso (47'), Luis Caicedo (81' o.g.).

LDU de Quito controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Boca Juniors — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 0–3 Boca Juniors