Boca Juniors 0–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

8/28/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Quarter-finalsAlberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Boca Juniors62%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.52

Boca Juniors

1.51

LDU de Quito

0.52

Boca Juniors creates 190% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.44

creates per match

0.83

0.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.44

LDU de Quito

0.83

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.20

LDU de Quito

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

87%

Boca Juniors or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

38%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

33%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

78%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

44%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

19%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

41%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

10%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

83%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.20 · 25 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.44 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Boca Juniors defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

62%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

13%

Boca Juniors at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Alexis Mac Allister

Boca Juniors · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

Carlos Rodriguez

15'

Rodrigo Aguirre

18'

Franklin Guerra

34'

Luis Ayala← Christian Cruz

41'

Nicolás Capaldo

44'

Sebastián Villa← Eduardo Salvio

50'

Marcelo Weigandt

52'

Antonio Valencia

56'

Franco Soldano← Ramón Ábila

63'

Jordy Alcivar

66'

Jose Cazares← Jordy Alcivar

80'

Daniele De Rossi← Nicolás Capaldo

86'

Adolfo Muñoz← Jhojan Julio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaLDU

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots7

3Corners5

18Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target0

9Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box2

8Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

441Total Passes342

361Accurate Passes242

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1