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LDU de Quito vs Atletico Goianiense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
5/25/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

LDU de Quito54%
×Draw27%
Atletico Goianiense20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.47
Atletico Goianiense
0.78

LDU de Quito creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.07
Atletico Goianiense
1.00

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.57
Atletico Goianiense
0.88

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
80%
LDU de Quito or Atletico Goianiense
73%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
46%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
27%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
77%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
43%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
54%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
18%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
73%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.00 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
54%
level
27%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
20%

LDU de Quito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: LDU de Quito 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

LDU de Quito and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.