Atletico Goianiense 4–0 LDU de Quito

Atletico Goianiense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

Rickson 90+4'

Hayner 87'

Shaylon 77'

Jorginho 62'

4/6/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico Goianiense56%

×Draw25%

LDU de Quito19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.80

Atletico Goianiense

1.60

LDU de Quito

0.80

Atletico Goianiense creates 100% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.75

creates per match

1.23

0.38

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.75

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.38

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

81%

Atletico Goianiense or LDU de Quito

75%

Draw or LDU de Quito

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

30%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

47%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

22%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

55%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

19%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

75%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.75 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

56%

level

25%

LDU de Quito scores more

19%

Atletico Goianiense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jorginho

Atletico Goianiense · M

9.3

Match Events

35'

Edson

56'

J. Quintero← A. López

56'

L. Ayala← C. Cruz

62'

Jorginho↳ Wellington Rato

71'

J. Quiñonez← A. Muñoz

71'

72'

75'

77'

77'

Shaylon↳ Jorginho

85'

B. Montenegro← Wellington Rato

85'

Hayner← Dudu

85'

Rickson← Shaylon

87'

Hayner↳ Jorginho

90+2'

Isaac← Marlon Freitas

90+1'

Airton← Léo Pereira

90+4'

Rickson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLDU

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots10

5Corners6

13Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots10

8On Target2

8Off Target4

4Blocked4

11Inside Box6

9Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

440Total Passes428

360Accurate Passes342

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1