LDU de Quito 4–0 Antofagasta: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Antofagasta

J. Arce 90+2'

T. Molina 77'

J. Cornejo 50' (OG)

N. Angulo 47'

4/13/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

LDU de Quito65%

×Draw22%

Antofagasta12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchAntofagasta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.62

LDU de Quito

1.78

Antofagasta

0.62

LDU de Quito creates 187% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

0.67

0.57

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Antofagasta

0.67

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Antofagasta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Antofagasta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

88%

LDU de Quito or Antofagasta

78%

Draw or Antofagasta

35%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

38%

Antofagasta wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

83%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

53%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

26%

Antofagasta 1+ goals

46%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

13%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

84%

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Antofagasta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Antofagasta attack 0.67 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

65%

level

22%

Antofagasta scores more

12%

LDU de Quito at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Caicedo

LDU de Quito · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

M. Hoyos← J. Ortiz

46'

N. Angulo← A. Muñoz

47'

N. Angulo↳ M. Hoyos

50'

J. CornejoOwn goal

51'

Diego Sánchez

58'

I. Ledezma← D. Orellana

58'

G. Torres← B. Hurtado

66'

A. López← J. Quintero

70'

70'

72'

73'

74'

77'

78'

C. Rodríguez← B. Nieto

79'

J. Espinoza← T. Molina

80'

J. Arce← A. Alvarado

90+2'

J. Arce↳ A. López

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUAntofagasta

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots5

6Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots5

9On Target1

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

11Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

620Total Passes367

555Accurate Passes300

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2