Antofagasta 1–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Antofagasta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

LDU de Quito

M. López 18'

A. López 67'

N. Angulo 52'

5/4/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Antofagasta31%

×Draw25%

LDU de Quito44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntofagastaExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Antofagasta

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.52

LDU de Quito creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Antofagasta

1.00

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Antofagasta

1.80

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw

56%

Antofagasta or LDU de Quito

75%

Draw or LDU de Quito

69%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+

13%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals

71%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

35%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

13%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

78%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

45%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

41%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.00 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Antofagasta defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Antofagasta scores more

31%

level

25%

LDU de Quito scores more

44%

LDU de Quito at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

N. Angulo

LDU de Quito · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

12'

18'

37'

46'

I. Ledezma← A. Cuadra

52'

N. Angulo↳ T. Molina

58'

A. López← A. Alvarado

67'

A. López↳ N. Angulo

69'

B. Hurtado← C. Rodríguez

73'

76'

76'

80'

84'

85'

87'

90'

90+1'

90+4'

J. Arce← M. Hoyos

90+5'

F. Guerra← J. Quintero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntofagastaLDU

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots18

3Corners9

24Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target8

5Off Target7

1Blocked3

6Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

293Total Passes490

207Accurate Passes401

71%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

24Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0