LDU de Quito 1–0 America de Quito: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Quito

7/19/2019

Liga Pro · Round 18Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LDU de Quito65%

×Draw22%

America de Quito13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.64

LDU de Quito

1.77

America de Quito

0.64

LDU de Quito creates 177% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

0.40

0.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.93

America de Quito

0.40

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

America de Quito

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

87%

LDU de Quito or America de Quito

78%

Draw or America de Quito

35%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

38%

America de Quito wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

83%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

53%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

26%

America de Quito 1+ goals

47%

America de Quito 2+ goals

14%

America de Quito 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

83%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

America de Quito away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.93 + America de Quito defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

America de Quito attack 0.40 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

65%

level

22%

America de Quito scores more

13%

LDU de Quito at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff