Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America de Quito vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
2/23/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 3Olimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito38%
×Draw28%
LDU de Quito34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.24
LDU de Quito
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 136 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.33
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

America de Quito
0.93
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
66%
America de Quito or LDU de Quito
72%
Draw or LDU de Quito
62%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
17%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
71%
America de Quito 2+ goals
35%
America de Quito 3+ goals
13%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
68%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
32%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
53%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America de Quito scores more
38%
level
28%
LDU de Quito scores more
34%

America de Quito at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: America de Quito 0–1 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat America de Quito 1-0 in Liga Pro on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.