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LC Ba vs CAS de Sévaré — Première Division 2019

LC Ba
LC Ba
FT
2 – 1
CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
5/5/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 14Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

LC Ba43%
×Draw29%
CAS de Sévaré28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LC Ba
1.22
CAS de Sévaré
0.91

LC Ba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 9 away

creates per match

LC Ba
1.10
CAS de Sévaré
0.67

allows per match

LC Ba
1.15
CAS de Sévaré
1.33

finishing

LC Ba+0.00on par
CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LC Ba ↓

CAS de Sévaré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

LC Ba or draw
72%
LC Ba or CAS de Sévaré
71%
Draw or CAS de Sévaré
57%

Winning margin

LC Ba wins by 2+
19%
CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

LC Ba 1+ goals
70%
LC Ba 2+ goals
34%
LC Ba 3+ goals
12%
CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
60%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
23%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LC Ba (draw refunded)
61%
CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LC Ba at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

CAS de Sévaré away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LC Ba attack 1.10 + CAS de Sévaré defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.67 + LC Ba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LC Ba scores more
43%
level
29%
CAS de Sévaré scores more
28%

LC Ba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LC Ba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: LC Ba 2–1 CAS de Sévaré

LC Ba beat CAS de Sévaré 2-1 in Première Division on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.