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CAS de Sévaré vs LC Ba — Première Division 2019

CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
FT
0 – 2
LC Ba
LC Ba
3/11/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 5Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré23%
×Draw24%
LC Ba53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAS de Sévaré
1.03
LC Ba
1.70

LC Ba creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 52 away

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
LC Ba
0.96

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré
2.44
LC Ba
1.17

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par
LC Ba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

LC Ba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw
47%
CAS de Sévaré or LC Ba
76%
Draw or LC Ba
77%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
8%
LC Ba wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
64%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
28%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
9%
LC Ba 1+ goals
82%
LC Ba 2+ goals
51%
LC Ba 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
30%
LC Ba (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

LC Ba away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + LC Ba defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

LC Ba attack 0.96 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more
23%
level
24%
LC Ba scores more
53%

LC Ba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LC Ba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: CAS de Sévaré 0–2 LC Ba

LC Ba beat CAS de Sévaré 2-0 in Première Division on March 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.