Lazio 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sassuolo

S. Lulić 90+5'

C. Immobile 53' (pen)

D. Berardi 89'

Rogério 57'

4/7/2019

Serie A · Round 31Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Lazio43%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.24

Lazio

1.48

Sassuolo

1.24

Lazio creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

1.25

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Lazio

1.31

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Lazio

1.25

Sassuolo

1.64

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Lazio+0.08on par

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

68%

Lazio or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

57%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

21%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

77%

Lazio 2+ goals

43%

Lazio 3+ goals

19%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

71%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

35%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

57%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.31 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Lazio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lazio scores more

43%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

32%

Lazio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Luis Alberto

Lazio · F

7.6

Match Events

31'

Marco Parolo

52'

Manuel Locatelli

53'

C. ImmobilePenalty

57'

Rogério

63'

J. Correa← F. Caicedo

66'

F. Magnanelli← M. Locatelli

69'

S. Milinković-Savić← M. Parolo

73'

D. Berardi← A. Matri

78'

Milan Badelj

80'

Lucas Leiva← M. Badelj

83'

M. Bourabia← A. Duncan

89'

D. Berardi↳ S. Sensi

90+5'

S. Lulić↳ C. Immobile

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioSassuolo

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots5

11Corners1

14Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots5

7On Target2

11Off Target1

4Blocked2

16Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

501Total Passes378

423Accurate Passes297

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

8Offsides1