Lazio 2–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Lazio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

C. Immobile 75'

F. Caicedo 5'

D. Vlahović 88' (pen)

1/6/2021

Serie A · Round 16Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Lazio41%

×Draw26%

Fiorentina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LazioExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.19

Lazio

1.39

Fiorentina

1.19

Lazio creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

1.31

creates per match

1.10

1.27

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lazio

1.31

Fiorentina

1.10

allows per match

Lazio

1.27

Fiorentina

1.47

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Lazio+0.10scores more

Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lazio or draw

68%

Lazio or Fiorentina

74%

Draw or Fiorentina

59%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+

19%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals

75%

Lazio 2+ goals

40%

Lazio 3+ goals

16%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

70%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

33%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)

56%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 29 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.31 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fiorentina attack 1.10 + Lazio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lazio scores more

41%

level

26%

Fiorentina scores more

32%

Lazio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Biraghi

Fiorentina · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

F. Caicedo

26'

Ciro ImmobileGoal cancelled

38'

V. Eysseric← F. Ribéry

43'

Luiz Felipe

45'

Gonzalo Escalante

46'

Patric← Luiz Felipe

59'

J. Akpa Akpro← F. Caicedo

60'

José Callejón← L. Venuti

73'

Pol Lirola← L. Martínez

73'

C. Kouamé← G. Bonaventura

75'

C. Immobile

77'

Ş. Radu← M. Lazzari

77'

D. Cataldi← G. Escalante

81'

Gaetano Castrovilli

87'

Wesley Hoedt

88'

D. VlahovićPenalty

89'

V. Muriqi← C. Immobile

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LazioFiorentina

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots12

2Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target5

4Off Target2

6Blocked5

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

409Total Passes478

346Accurate Passes414

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Lazio vs Fiorentina

Lazio beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A on January 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Caicedo (5'), C. Immobile (75'), D. Vlahović (88' pen).

Fiorentina controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.

Lazio vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lazio vs Fiorentina