Fiorentina 2–1 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio

G. Bonaventura 69'

M. Kayode 61'

Luis Alberto 45'

2/26/2024

Serie A · Round 26Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina46%

×Draw26%

Lazio28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Fiorentina

1.48

Lazio

1.08

Fiorentina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.70

creates per match

1.08

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Lazio

1.08

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.08

Lazio

1.26

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less

Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

72%

Fiorentina or Lazio

74%

Draw or Lazio

54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

23%

Lazio wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

77%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

43%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

19%

Lazio 1+ goals

66%

Lazio 2+ goals

29%

Lazio 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

63%

Lazio (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lazio attack 1.08 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina scores more

46%

level

26%

Lazio scores more

28%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

M. Kayode

Fiorentina · D

8.2

Match Events

45'

Luis Alberto↳ M. Guendouzi

46'

M. Zaccagni← G. Isaksen

46'

E. Hysaj← A. Marušić

61'

M. Kayode

62'

M. Vecino← D. Cataldi

67'

Mattéo Guendouzi

69'

G. Bonaventura

78'

Pedro← Felipe Anderson

78'

V. Castellanos← C. Immobile

81'

A. Barák← L. Beltrán

85'

R. Mandragora← R. Sottil

88'

Matías Vecino

90'

M. Lopez← Arthur

90'

M'Bala Nzola← A. Belotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaLazio

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots5

2.92Expected Goals (xG)0.30

13Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots5

7On Target1

9Off Target2

6Blocked2

18Inside Box5

4Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

542Total Passes481

463Accurate Passes404

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0