Fiorentina 2–1 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio

A. Guðmundsson 90' (pen), 49' (pen)

Mario Gila 41'

9/22/2024

Serie A · Round 5Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina46%

×Draw26%

Lazio28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Fiorentina

1.48

Lazio

1.08

Fiorentina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.70

creates per match

1.08

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Lazio

1.08

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.08

Lazio

1.26

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less

Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

72%

Fiorentina or Lazio

74%

Draw or Lazio

54%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

23%

Lazio wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

77%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

43%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

19%

Lazio 1+ goals

66%

Lazio 2+ goals

29%

Lazio 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

63%

Lazio (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lazio attack 1.08 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fiorentina scores more

46%

level

26%

Lazio scores more

28%

Fiorentina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Guðmundsson

Fiorentina · F

8.9

Match Events

11'

Robin Gosens

25'

Gustav Isaksen

41'

Mario Gila↳ Nuno Tavares

42'

Cristiano Biraghi

46'

A. Guðmundsson← L. Martínez Quarta

46'

L. Ranieri← C. Biraghi

49'

A. GuðmundssonPenalty

61'

N. Rovella← G. Castrovilli

61'

L. Tchaouna← G. Isaksen

65'

C. Kouamé← R. Mandragora

68'

Pedro← B. Dia

69'

A. Marušić← M. Lazzari

81'

J. Ikoné← A. Colpani

83'

Y. Adli← D. Cataldi

85'

Patric

88'

DodôPenalty confirmed

89'

Mattéo Guendouzi

89'

Nuno Tavares

90+5'

Dodô

90'

A. GuðmundssonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaLazio

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots20

2.78Expected Goals (xG)1.05

3Corners10

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots20

5On Target6

9Off Target7

0Blocked7

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

46%Possession54%

355Total Passes404

303Accurate Passes360

85%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.46Goals Prevented0.46

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1