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Lazio vs Borussia Dortmund — UEFA Champions League 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
J. Akpro 76'
M. Hitz 23' (OG)
C. Immobile 6'
E. Haaland 71'
10/20/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group F - 1Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lazio52%
×Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
2.00
Borussia Dortmund
1.36

Lazio creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lazio
2.00
Borussia Dortmund
1.40

allows per match

Lazio
1.33
Borussia Dortmund
2.00

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Borussia Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
74%
Lazio or Borussia Dortmund
78%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
48%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
30%
Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
86%
Lazio 2+ goals
59%
Lazio 3+ goals
32%
Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
74%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
39%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
67%
Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 2.00 + Borussia Dortmund defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.40 + Lazio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lazio scores more
52%
level
22%
Borussia Dortmund scores more
26%

Lazio at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. ImmobileLazioLazio · F
8.3

Match Events

6'
C. Immobile↳ J. Correa
23'
M. HitzOwn goal
42'
Luis Alberto
46'
G. Reyna← J. Bellingham
51'
W. Hoedt← Luiz Felipe
62'
Giovanni Reyna
65'
J. Brandt← Ł. Piszczek
67'
V. Muriqi← J. Correa
67'
J. Akpro← S. Milinković-Savić
71'
E. Haaland↳ G. Reyna
76'
J. Akpro↳ C. Immobile
78'
Reinier← M. Reus
80'
M. Parolo← Luis Alberto
80'
F. Caicedo← C. Immobile
84'
Thomas Strakosha

Possession

35%Lazio

Shots

11Lazio

Pass accuracy

48%Lazio

Statistics

LazioBorussia
Overview
35%Possession65%
11Total Shots14
7Corners6
6Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots14
4On Target7
3Off Target5
4Blocked2
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box4
Passing
35%Possession65%
378Total Passes705
301Accurate Passes621
80%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Lazio vs Borussia Dortmund

Lazio beat Borussia Dortmund 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2020.

Goals: C. Immobile (6'), M. Hitz (23' o.g.), E. Haaland (71'), J. Akpro (76').

Borussia Dortmund controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.