Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Lazio: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lazio

Raphaël Guerreiro 44'

C. Immobile 67' (pen)

12/2/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group F - 5Signal-Iduna-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia Dortmund56%

×Draw24%

Lazio19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Borussia Dortmund

1.69

Lazio

0.88

Borussia Dortmund creates 92% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.88

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.88

Lazio

1.00

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

0.76

Lazio

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

81%

Borussia Dortmund or Lazio

76%

Draw or Lazio

44%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

31%

Lazio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

82%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

50%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

24%

Lazio 1+ goals

59%

Lazio 2+ goals

22%

Lazio 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

74%

Lazio (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.88 + Lazio defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lazio attack 1.00 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

56%

level

24%

Lazio scores more

19%

Borussia Dortmund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Hazard

Borussia Dortmund · F

7.7

Match Events

44'

Raphaël Guerreiro↳ T. Hazard

62'

N. Schulz← Raphaël Guerreiro

67'

C. ImmobilePenalty

70'

J. Akpro← Lucas Leiva

70'

Andreas Pereira← J. Correa

70'

M. Lazzari← M. Fares

76'

J. Brandt← T. Hazard

76'

J. Sancho← M. Reus

79'

F. Caicedo← S. Milinković-Savić

79'

G. Escalante← Luis Alberto

88'

A. Witsel← J. Bellingham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaLazio

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots12

1Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target6

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

700Total Passes508

631Accurate Passes447

90%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls7

0Offsides1