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Lazio U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Lazio U19
Lazio U19
FT
4 – 2
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
10/23/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 6Centro Sportivo Campo Aquile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lazio U1946%
×Draw21%
Cesena U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio U19
2.04
Cesena U19
1.71

Lazio U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lazio U19
2.64
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Lazio U19
0.86
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw
67%
Lazio U19 or Cesena U19
79%
Draw or Cesena U19
54%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+
26%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals
87%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
60%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
33%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
82%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
51%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 2.64 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Lazio U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lazio U19 scores more
46%
level
21%
Cesena U19 scores more
33%

Lazio U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio U19 vs Cesena U19

Lazio U19 beat Cesena U19 4-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Campo Aquile in Formello.