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Cesena U19 vs Lazio U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lazio U19
Lazio U19
3/5/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1959%
×Draw19%
Lazio U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.42
Lazio U19
1.43

Cesena U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Lazio U19
1.97

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Lazio U19
1.21

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
78%
Cesena U19 or Lazio U19
81%
Draw or Lazio U19
41%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
38%
Lazio U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
91%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
69%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
43%
Lazio U19 1+ goals
76%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
42%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Lazio U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lazio U19 attack 1.97 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
59%
level
19%
Lazio U19 scores more
22%

Cesena U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesena U19 vs Lazio U19

Cesena U19 beat Lazio U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.