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Lazio U19 vs Celtic U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Lazio U19
Lazio U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Celtic U19
Celtic U19
11/28/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stadio Mirko Fersini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lazio U1931%
×Draw24%
Celtic U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio U19
1.33
Celtic U19
1.67

Celtic U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lazio U19
0.33
Celtic U19
1.00

allows per match

Lazio U19
2.33
Celtic U19
2.33

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par
Celtic U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Celtic U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw
55%
Lazio U19 or Celtic U19
76%
Draw or Celtic U19
69%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+
13%
Celtic U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals
74%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
38%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
15%
Celtic U19 1+ goals
81%
Celtic U19 2+ goals
50%
Celtic U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Celtic U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Celtic U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 0.33 + Celtic U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Celtic U19 attack 1.00 + Lazio U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lazio U19 scores more
31%
level
24%
Celtic U19 scores more
45%

Celtic U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celtic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio U19 vs Celtic U19

Celtic U19 beat Lazio U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mirko Fersini in Formello.