Celtic U19 1–1 Lazio U19: Result & Stats

Celtic U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio U19

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Lesser Hampden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Celtic U1914%

×Draw21%

Lazio U1965%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celtic U19Expected goals in this matchLazio U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.92

Celtic U19

0.75

Lazio U19

1.92

Lazio U19 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Celtic U19

0.50

Lazio U19

1.33

allows per match

Celtic U19

2.50

Lazio U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic U19+0.00on par

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Celtic U19 or draw

35%

Celtic U19 or Lazio U19

79%

Draw or Lazio U19

86%

Winning margin

Celtic U19 wins by 2+

4%

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Celtic U19 1+ goals

53%

Celtic U19 2+ goals

17%

Celtic U19 3+ goals

4%

Lazio U19 1+ goals

85%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

57%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Celtic U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic U19 attack 0.50 + Lazio U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Lazio U19 attack 1.33 + Celtic U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Celtic U19 scores more

14%

level

21%

Lazio U19 scores more

65%

Lazio U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Celtic U19 1–1 Lazio U19

Celtic U19 and Lazio U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Lesser Hampden in Glasgow.

Celtic U19 vs Lazio U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Celtic U19 1–1 Lazio U19