Laval 0–1 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Laval

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Estac Troyes

M. Adeline 48'

11/21/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 192+ matches

Laval37%

×Draw28%

Estac Troyes35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LavalExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.16

Laval

1.21

Estac Troyes

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 205 home / 192 away

1.35

creates per match

1.11

1.20

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Laval

1.35

Estac Troyes

1.11

allows per match

Laval

1.20

Estac Troyes

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laval+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Laval or draw

65%

Laval or Estac Troyes

72%

Draw or Estac Troyes

63%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+

16%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals

70%

Laval 2+ goals

34%

Laval 3+ goals

12%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

69%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

32%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)

52%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 205 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 192 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.35 + Estac Troyes defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Estac Troyes attack 1.11 + Laval defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Laval scores more

37%

level

28%

Estac Troyes scores more

35%

Laval at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Diop

Estac Troyes · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

Mamadou Camara

26'

Adrien Monfray

48'

Mamadou Samassa

48'

M. Adeline↳ M. Detourbet

62'

M. Tchokounte← T. Pellenard

63'

J. Maggiotti← E. Clavreul

68'

Cyril Mandouki

68'

T. Vargas← W. Benard

74'

J. Assoumou← R. Ripart

85'

A. Faurand-Tournaire← M. Sellouki

86'

86'

89'

90+3'

90'

I. Traore← M. Detourbet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LavalEstac

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots15

3Corners7

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target5

6Off Target7

3Blocked3

3Inside Box12

9Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

417Total Passes484

326Accurate Passes391

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2